Incredible odds here at Unibet. Of course Cambuur has been struggling for several years, playing in the margin of the Dutch Jupiler League, but thinks are going to change it seems. More and more investors are lining up to help the team and as showed the past season the stadium will get full when results improve, which should also boost the team and club. The last time they were champions was in 1992, after which they relegated in 1994, only to get back up again in 1998, and again relegating two years later. In 2007/2008 the team ended 17th out of 20, which explains the current odd.

What seems to be forgotten here are all the new players at Cambuur. The current selection is as follows:

Goalkeepers
Peter van der Vlag
Robbert te Loeke (New.A talented goalkeeper who came from Werder Bremen).

Defenders
Koen Brack
Kasali Yinka Casal
Sander Fischer
Michael Jansen (New. An amazing transfer. The defender played for Vitesse and was one of the most promising defenders in the country. Hart problems ruined his chances, but in Leeuwarden he will try to revive his carreer).
Rudy Jansen (Last year's captain who was loaned from Excelsior. Has signed a 3 year contract).
Ale de Boer
Dennis van der Ree
Chris de Wagt

Midfielders
Paul Beekmans (New. Was the captain of Den Bosch who were title challengers last season as well. A class player).
Brandon Bonifacio
Danny Guijt (New. A creative and attacking midfielder who has no trouble finding the net. A very good transfer).
Sandor van der Heide
Anco Jansen (New. A young and talented midfielder. Probably not ready for the first 11 though).
Erik Wegh

Forwards
Jurjen Bosch
Ruud ter Heide (New. AGOVV's top striker for several years now with an amazing 51 goals last 3 seasons)
Jurrick Juliana
Rachid El Khalifi
Marc Mboua (Made his debut last year and was their top striker. A huge talent, already being followed by several top acts such as Chelsea).
Nassir Maachi (New. Promising winger who has played at Utrecht before having a dissapointing season in Dordrecht. With a good coach he should be showing his potential)
Kees Pier Tol

With trainer Jurrie Koolhof, who started at Cambuur in 2007/2008, the club has a relatively young, but already experienced trainer. The former Dutch international (5 caps) will be happy with his squad this season and the investors and fans will really want to promote this season already. They have a decent goalkeeper, several good defenders (with perhaps weaker backs), and an impressive midfield. With their creative and lethal attackers the team also has something most teams, even RKC, lack. I just can't believe these odds and will play this one 2/10. This should be a great trade but I might even ride it out.

From my earlier write-up:

ith these big servers the chance for a tiebreak is massive and long sets seem guaranteed. The line of 41.5 should be easy if the score is 3-1 or 3-2 for one of them. Both players already had 5 sets with 12 or more games involved as well and their previous encounters show we have some tight sets coming up as well, with a total of 8 sets with 12 or more games, out of 12 played:
12/2007 ATP Miami (USA) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-5 7-6(2) Second
25/2005 ATP Wimbledon (GBR) Grass Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3 Third
42/2004 ATP Madrid (ESP) I_Hard Marat Safin Feliciano Lopez 7-5 6-7(5) 6-3 Second
33/2004 ATP Athens (GRE) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-6(4) 6-3 Second
39/2002 ATP Hong Kong (CHN) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-6(2) 7-5 Second

After looking and analysing tomorrow's options this one seems to be the best, and for me probably the only, bet. In the left corner, we find Spanish Feliciano Lopez, who has been impressive this tournament. We always knew his tough and powerful left-handed serve can cause many problems on quick surfaces but this is something most people would have never expected. His gameplan is pretty simple: He relies on his first serve a lot (68, 65, 68 and 61% in thusfar). His winning percentages on serve differ an average of about 20% between his first and second serve, which is actually better than usual for him. His forehand is pretty good, with the inside out stroke probably being his best one. His backhand is sliced, which has been working well on the surface and with his chip and charge approach he has been winning many points. His volleying has been good as well, winning 2/3 of the points and approaching the net a lot. This has given him wins over Dabul in 4, Karanusic in 3, Reynolds in 4 and his biggest win: Baghdatis in 5.

Safin has perhaps been the nicest surprise for most tennis fans. The former number one has been surprising friend and foe, beating Fognini, Seppi, Wawrinka and, most of all, Novak Djokovic. Just like Lopez, he has the big serve going on and again, the first serve is essential to his play. Marat is the best player from the baseline but Lopez chip and charge game should give him many points as well. Both of them can blow up during the match and I expect an even affair, with ups and downs from both players and probably AT LEAST 4 sets. With these big servers the chance for a tiebreak is massive and long sets seem guaranteed. The line of 41.5 should be easy if the score is 3-1 or 3-2 for one of them. Both players already had 5 sets with 12 or more games involved as well and their previous encounters show we have some tight sets coming up as well, with a total of 8 sets with 12 or more games, out of 12 played:
12/2007 ATP Miami (USA) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-5 7-6(2) Second
25/2005 ATP Wimbledon (GBR) Grass Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 6-4 7-6(4) 6-3 Third
42/2004 ATP Madrid (ESP) I_Hard Marat Safin Feliciano Lopez 7-5 6-7(5) 6-3 Second
33/2004 ATP Athens (GRE) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-6(4) 6-3 Second
39/2002 ATP Hong Kong (CHN) Hard Feliciano Lopez Marat Safin 7-6(2) 7-5 Second

Ik verwacht wel dat Spanje het gaat redden. Kijkend van positie tot positie:
Keeper: Duidelijk winst voor Spanje, Casillas is in topvorm en echt een puntenpakker en Lehmann is gewoon:
Backs: Capdevilla en Sergio Ramos: Ramos is een van de betere backs en misschien wel de beste ter wereld, zeker met zijn aanvallende impulsen. Capdevilla heeft die impulsen ook wel maar is duidelijk een klasse minder. Bij de Duitsers kan je eigenlijk hetzelfde zeggen met Lahm en vermoedelijk Friedrich. Dat is aardig gelijk.
Centrale verdediging: Puyol is een van de beste verdedigers en straalt veel uit. Kan zijn team op sleeptouw nemen. Marchena heeft dat duidelijk minder maar is gewoon erg duidelijk, niets op aan te merken. Mertesacker en Metzelder blijven toch erg kwetsbaar en hier kan het verschil weleens worden gemaakt. De Spanjaarden spelen veel over de grond met snelle steekballen en een roterend middenveld waarin zowel Silva als Fabregas ineens in kunnen schuiven. De trage, maar kopsterke verdedigers zullen moeite hebben met dit spelletje verwacht ik. De Kroaten en Turken maakten het ze met een vergelijkbaar strijdplan erg lastig.

Verdedigende middenvelders: Als hij fit genoeg is Frings (andersRolfes) en Hitzlsperger. Frings is erg sterk natuurlijk maar heeft weinig ritme en het zou me verbazen als hij 90 minuten of langer zou kunnen spelen. Hitzlsperger en Rolfes zijn beide aardig, maar niet overtuigend genoeg voor de wereldtop in mijn ogen. De Spanjaarden zetten daar een gevestige topper met Xavi tegenover en daarnaast Senna, een man in topvorm en een van de revelaties dit toernooi. Duidelijke winst voor de Spanjaarden.
Aanvallende middenvelders: Ballack met een gigantisch vraagteken, samen met Schweinsteiger. Ballack heeft me nog niet echt kunnen overtuigen dit toernooi maar is mentaal gezien absoluut onmisbaar. Er is geen vervanger voor zijn positie die het niveau aankan en zeker niet iemand die zijn leidersrol echt over kan nemen. Schweinsteiger is inmiddels in vorm maar wordt nu een beetje gehyped. Het blijft een momentvoetballer en iemand die door een Senna makkelijk uit de wedstrijd kan worden gespeeld in mijn ogen. Spanje zet daar Iniesta tegenover die fantastisch in vorm is en Silva die ook fantastisch in vorm is. Met een half-fitte/afwezige Ballack zal dit een strijd zijn die de Spanjaarden ook moeten kunnen winnen. Zeker nu het middenveld ook nog eens wordt versterkt met Fabregas, waardoor het erg dynamisch wordt met drie spelers die in kunnen schuiven naast Torres en zoals gezegd verwacht ik problemen voor de statige verdediging.

Aanval: Torres vs Podolski en Klose. Dit is een strijd die in het voordeel is van de Duitsers in principe maar veel zal het niet schelen. Ik zie Torres er zomaar weer staan in deze finale en Klose heeft nog geen wedstrijd kunnen overtuigen. Podolski speelt wel erg sterk met goede assists en natuurlijk zijn goals begin van het toernooi. De afwezige Villa is natuurlijk pijnlijk voor Spanje, maar tegen de Russen werd al duidelijk dat dit prima kan worden opgevangen.

Bank: Spanje heeft met Xabi en Guiza nog twee troefkaarten in handen in mijn ogen. De Duitsers hebben Odonkor en Borowski en enkele lepe spitsen, die echter allemaal hopeloos uit vorm zijn vooralsnog. Duitsers meer kwantiteit, Spanjaarden meer kwaliteit.

Qua teamspel en momentum zijn het twee ploegen die prima op elkaar zijn ingespeeld. De Spanjaarden hebben beduidend meer internationale ervaring en dit is ook een factor die het verschil kan gaan maken. In mijn ogen hebben de Duitsers ook nog altijd pas 1 goede wedstrijd gespeeld tegenover 2/3 van Spanje.

Fernando Verdasco has really been surprising me this year. The left-handed Spanish player has always been an allrounder with outside hardcourts being his best surface. This year however he has been great on clay in Hamburg and Roland Garros, only losing to Federer and Rafa and his performance up to Wimbledon has been great as well. In Queens his run ended with a round 2 exit against today's opponent Ancic 7-6(6) 6-4 in a match that had more potential from Spanish side but in Nottingham he proved what he can do on grass, reaching the semi final after beating Daniel, Reynolds, Simon and Cilic, after which he just lost to Karlovic in a final set tiebreaker. This final was played indoors however due to rain. He is now on a 7 game winning streak on grass after he continued his form in Wimbledon, beating a very tough draw to reach round 4. In form German Kohlschreiber was easily beaten in 3 sets and Belgian Olivier Rochus was the next victim. After a mediocre start (7-6 6-7) he had no trouble with the Belgian, beating him 6-1 6-1. He was a big underdog against grass specialist and big serving Berdych but the slightly injured Czech never stood a chance and lost 6-4 6-4 6-0. Verdasco has never been a big server but thusfar he has been looking fine on that aspect of the game, serving an average first serve percentage between 61 and 74% in his matches and without even conceding a single breakpoint in his last match.

As said already, today's match should be the rematch for Verdasco's lost match just 3 weeks ago in Queens. Ancic is at his best on grass and his 36-12 record since 2003 (without playing last year due to his illness) is impressive. Despite this I do believe the Croatian is really being overrated here. When the ball is in the rally, Verdasco is a much better player from the baseline and if Ancic decides to approach the net he has a great passing shot. Ancic was beating an injured Llodra 6-4 7-6(7) 2-0 in round 1 when the Frenchman retired in an unimpressive display and didn't look too good a round later as well, when he needed 5 sets to dispose of relative nobody Petzschner. A round later Ancic was an underdog against Ferrer, who beat him a weak earlier. This time Ancic was better and beat him in four sets: 6-4 6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(3). Against Ferrer it was clear that Ancic struggled a lot when he was unable to get his first serve in. Ferrer however, isn't really the player to attack a second serve, something that Verdasco will do. Ancic decided to concentrate on serving and rallying to his weaker backhand, which worked out perfectly most of the time. Against Verdasco his tactic needs to be adjusted and the Spaniard will be able to attack Ancic' backhand with his left-handed forehand. He is far less dependant on his first serve and his second one is working out nicely thusfar. I believe Ancic should be the favourite for this match but never with a difference as big as this. Verdasco is such a brilliant player who is hard to beat when he is on a roll, and I believe this is the case at the moment. With Berdych he has already faced an opponent with a similar style and this will be a huge advantage. He is usually pretty decent against the big servers, while Ancic has the tendency to struggle against lefties. It's time for Verdasco to take the H2H to 1-1!

Stanislas Wawrinka has really stepped up this year and is joining the big guys, even reaching the top 10 in the world. I have always liked his play. He is very complete, with a decent forehand, a brilliant backhand and a big serve. These abilities give him all he needs to play well on all surfaces. Despite this, grass has been his worst surface statistically. He has played some terrible matches in the past but I won't look back too far, considering he can hardly be compared to the player he was just 2,3 years ago. Last year he had some tough draws with Llodra and Karlovic (and an easier one against Korolev) and ended with a dissapointing 0-3 on the surface. He took a break after his great, but exhausting clay season but has looked good in his first three matches. Round 1 was just a formality, against weak claycourter Daniel, beating him in 3 easy sets and looking especially impressive on his first serve and on his returns. Round 2 was something different though, with in form Argentine Del Potro as his opponent. Again he didn't lose a single set, winning in 3 hard fought sets and looking very solid and concentrated. A round later he played in form Zverev, who struggled with injury issues and had to retire after two lost sets. What is striking, is the regularity in Stan the Man's performances. He hasn't lost a single set in his matches and looked very focussed in the end of sets, winning 50% of his won sets from a 5-5 score. His first serve percentage in all three matches were 59, 58 and 57% and his second serve points won were 58, 57 and again 57%. To finish it up, his percentage of first points won has always been between 76 and even 89%.

Now over to Marat Safin, the experienced Russian who seems to have found the way up again. His preparation in Queens was unimpressive but his first round performance against claycourter Fognini looked rock solid. He had the bad luck to draw Djokovic in round 2 though, but managed to cause the biggest upset thusfar, beating the Serbian world number three in straight sets: 6-4 7-6 6-2. Marat seemed his old self again but downgraded his play a lot in his win over Italy's Seppi in four sets, struggling a lot along the way. Safin's first serve percentage and second serve points won are comparable to Wawrinka's, but there is a difference on the first serve, which shows an advantage for the Swiss player.

The match-up is interesting and what can be expected is a relatively tight match, where sets will be decided in the last couple of games with some expected 7-5's or tiebreaks. Safin 's performance against Seppi didn't impress me at all. He was lucky with the many errors of his opponent. In fact, Safin was hardly able to create a real difference between his winners and errors in all his matches, while Wawrinka did show a huge difference with far more winners and less errors than Safin. Marat has stated several times already (now and in the past) that grass just isn't his best surface and that he still has some trouble with it. I would never go as far as calling Wawrinka a grass player since he has yet to prove himself on the surface, but I see a lot of potential. As stated, he has looked solid as a rock thusfar and the stability in his performances really impressed me. Safin has had a great run but I expect him to blow up rather sooner than later. Monday's match will be their third encounter. Wawrinka has won both their matches with ease, on hardcourt and clay:
19/2008 ATP Rome (ITA) Clay Stanislas Wawrinka Marat Safin 6-7(5) 6-2 6-1 First
35/2007 ATP U.S. Open (USA) Hard Stanislas Wawrinka Marat Safin 6-3 6-3 6-3 Second

The nineteen year old Agnieszka Radwanska is the biggest or at least one of the biggest talents currently on the WTA Tour. She keeps growing and improving every single week it seems and with agile movement, quick play and the fact that she hardly makes unforced errors she is a menace to all opponents she faces. She can play well on all surfaces and showed how good she can be on grass, reaching a fourth and trhid round in her first two Wimbledons. The youngster has bean in astonishing form in 2008 as well, winning 3 WTA titles thusfar and losing just twice against the odds: To Cirstea in the Fed-Cup at the start of the year and to Larcher de Brito in Miami. She has beaten so many class acts already and seems very fit. Both mentally and physically she is one of the stronger players at the moment. She lacks the real power someone as Kuznetsova has, but as said already, she is able to compensate this with her movement and intelligent play. Her grass season is going well to give a small understatement: 7-0 thusfar, with a title in Eastbourne. Last week she beat experienced class players as Bartoli, Petrova, Razzano and Dulko and this week the draw gave her the opportunity to play the young talents the WTA has to offer: Benesova, Domachowska and Pavlychenkova. Playing fellow young talents didn't bother her at all, losing just 12 games in total and a max of 3 per set. In these matches she made just 16 unforced errrors (against 51 winners). Her serve is the weakness in her game, with her first of course being better than the second one, but with a smaller difference than with most players. She has been compensating this with very high first serve percentages (between 70 and 79%).

Young Radwanska, ranked 11 in the world, faces the world number four Kuznetsova, who has seen seeds as Sharapova and Ivanovic, both hardhitters as her, fall already. The Russian started her grass campaign in Eastbourne as well, but didn't stand a chance in her first match against Caroline Wozniacki, winning just 4 games. She seemed to take that performance into Wimbledon as well, only just beating mediocre Johansson in round 1, 6-7(5) 7-5 6-3. Katerina Bondarenko and Strycova howver, didn't give her any trouble in the following matches.

When comparing Radwanska's unforced errors with Kuznetsova's, her number of 16 becomes even more impressive: Kuznetsova's number is a dazzling 63 (against 78, while Radwanksa had 51 winners and a set less). Kuznetsova has a more attacking tactic which accounts for a part of her errors, but still the difference with Radwanks (and more importantly: the ratio between error and winner) is far too big. Kuznetsova's powerful play has never lead to a semi final at Wimbledon and I can't see it happen this year either. Smart Radwanska should take the upmost of her slow movement, just like she did against Petrova last week, and in this form I just can't see her losing. Kuznetsova has a big 4-1 lead in the H2H but the circumstances at the moment are really in favor of the young Polish player.

To complete the write-up, here is the H2H:
11/2008 WTA Indian Wells (USA) Hard Svetlana Kuznetsova Agnieszka Radwanska 6-2 6-4 1/4
3/2008 WTA Australian Open (AUS) Hard Agnieszka Radwanska Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-3 6-4 Third
40/2007 WTA Stuttgart (GER) I_Hard Svetlana Kuznetsova Agnieszka Radwanska 6-4 6-7(5) 6-3 Second
34/2007 WTA New Haven (USA) Hard Svetlana Kuznetsova Agnieszka Radwanska 4-6 6-1 6-4 Second
26/2007 WTA Wimbledon (GBR) Grass Svetlana Kuznetsova Agnieszka Radwanska 6-2 6-3 Third